The People vs Science

After releasing new flood control and potential damage maps last February, FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) recalled them and released new ones. After Sandy it was no surprise that the February FEMA maps had expanded flood zones and wave damage areas.  Although, for some it demanded outrage.  So much outrage in fact that miraculously FEMA revised their maps reducing the “V-Zones” (wave damage areas) and changing some of the flood zones as well.  That must be the "public opinion option" in the peer review process.

FEMA maps make a big difference to insurance rates.  Insurers use them to rate property policies.  A change in the maps can make a shore home or business unaffordable with a stroke of a pen, or possibly a highlighter.  Homeowners who paid $5000 dollars last year for property insurance might face a bill as large as $30,000 this year based on The FEMA designation for their location.

It’s no wonder that many shore lovers were upset by the new maps.  That “old bungalow” on the beach suddenly became unaffordable.  It’s very human to look for somebody to blame in this kind of situation.  Unfortunately rising and warming oceans seem deaf to public opinion and Hurricanes (Superstorms?) like Sandy aren’t around long enough to vote on.  Which leaves the bearer of ill tidings, FEMA, right in the cross hairs of resident's resentment.

Groups like “Stop FEMA now” are organizing to prevent the tyranny of FEMA flood maps and predictions from taking their shore privileges.  FEMA managers have stated that the maps were changed because the original February maps were “Overstated,” not due to political pressure.  However, the new maps do not take into account ocean rise and have considerably reduced “V-Zones.”  The realtor who organized Stop FEMA Now said he couldn’t understand how a wave could come over a barrier island and through a breakwater to menace his home.  He may have missed some of the live footage  during the storm due to his power being out. Especially the parts where sections of the barrier islands got washed away.

More and more, science and research rubs up against public opinion and comes off much the worse for wear.  It’s as if we think we get to pick and choose what’s true from science.  Which are the parts we like and want to keep, and which we don’t.  While we like better tornado predictions and long range weather forecasting, that global climate change is baloney.  Oh we appreciate and are thankful for the advances in DNA testing and microbiology, but don’t try and sell us any of that Evolution stuff.

Much of the time it comes down to money, and having a $30,000 insurance bill is a pretty good reason to object.  However, with Federal flood insurance under fire that may well leave private insurers on the hook.  It will be interesting to see how they react.  However, even if the flood zones remain reduced, after many years working with and for insurance companies I can say with great confidence that they will simply adjust their rates and pass on the risk to consumers.  That’s what keeps them in business.  If they don’t think they can sell enough shore property insurance at $30,000 a pop they will simply spread the risk to the larger group of homeowners and lower the rate.  That way happy sun-soaked shore lovers will not have to move away, or build on stilts, or contend with astronomical homeowner rates.  We’ll all just help them shoulder the load.  We don’t mind, we’re very nice like that.

Come the late summer and fall in the years ahead, after the next superstorm, and waves have cleared away the barrier islands and inexplicably rolled into the living rooms of shore-lovers up and down the coast, they will have a big insurance check to hold as they quietly murmur, “Who’d a thunk it?”